Here is the second article (the first was on cornerback) analyzing the Eagles draft philosophy and what is right or wrong based on historical data.
When asked about using five of nine picks in the 2021 draft on linemen, Howie said “Right or wrong, as long as I’m here, that’s going to be the priority.” While Howie has seemed to shift his draft philosophy annually (valuing college production several years ago, then a focus on athletes last year, or reaching to fill positions vs. sticking to their board), he has been outwardly consistent on valuing the lines.
Below shows draft stats from 2010–2021, with the first set showing the pure number of picks used by position group and the second showing the amount of draft capital used by position group. For each, how the Eagles compare to league averages is shown.
Despite his statements, besides quarterback defensive line is the only position group where the Eagles have actually invested more than the league average in the draft.
Eagles draft history on the D-line
On the D-line, the Eagles both use more picks (22.4% of their picks vs. the league average of 18.0% of picks) and more draft capital (20.7% vs. 18.7%) than the league overall. The Eagles rank 2nd in the league in number of picks used on DL and 7th in draft capital.
This surprises nobody as the Eagles have used 22 picks in this time period on DL, drafting at least one linemen every year except 2011 and making multiple picks in most years. Additionally, the Eagles have drafted very well on the defensive line with no egregious draft misses in the first three rounds. Curry and Te’o-Nesheim are the two lowest graded R1–3 picks — Curry had a couple of good years, particularly 2017, and Te’o-Nesheim only lasted one season in Philly before moving on to Tampa where he has had a couple of decent years.
Below shows the full list of Eagles draft picks over this period sorted by draft slot with player AV value and percentile (what performance percentile they are in for their position), along with the expected player percentile from that draft slot. On the defensive line, the Eagles have either been lucky or good (or both) as they have succeeded by getting value on basically all of their top picks, including a long-term elite player in Fletcher Cox, with no notable draft misses. Day 3 picks have generally not been of value as is expected from day 3 picks. As a preview, the story is very different for the offensive line…
As opposed to CB where I explained here the Eagles heavily rely on lower percentage day 3 picks and reclamation project signings or trades, the top end of the draft has been a priority for DL:
- Round 1: Graham, Cox, Barnett
- Round 2: Curry
- Round 3: Bennie Logan, Daniel Te’o-Nesheim, and Milton Williams this year
- Day 3 Notable Picks: Josh Sweat and Beau Allen
On top of the draft, the Eagles have also prioritized DL in free agency and trades, adding several linemen that have had significant playing time (Michael Bennett, Ridgeway, Hargrave, Chris Long, Malik Jackson, Jernigan, and most recently Ryan Kerrigan).
The Eagles defensive line has been a strength, with elite or near-elite pass rush and upper-half run defense grades over the past five years. Their high draft picks of Cox, Graham, and Curry consistently appear in the top grading below:
The 2021 draft and looking forward to 2022
I gave my post-draft thoughts on what value this year’s picks could be expected to bring here, but think the long-term focus on the defensive line is absolutely correct as well as the prioritization in this year’s draft. The DL is still good but aging and is frankly too expensive, with the four projected starters consuming 26% of the entire salary cap and all in the top eight cap hits on the team for 2021.
Milton Williams is the only DT in the draft this year with an 85+ grade in pass rush and run defense and brings flexibility inside and out. Marlon Tuipulotu could add the run-stuffing defender that has been missing recently — I make comparisons of Tuipulotu to Bennie Logan, who have similar builds and measurables, were both generally ranked somewhere in the 7th to 13th best DT prospect (although Tuipulotu was ranked as high as 3rd by some before falling due to back concerns), and were discounted in the draft some due to being more run-defenders than pass rushers. Throughout his career, Bennie’s defenses gave up 50 fewer rushing yards per game when he was on the field vs. not on the field and if Tuipulotu can bring similar value, it fits a definite need for the Eagles. And Tarron Jackson, despite being picked at 191 where success is generally not found, has interesting potential as he shined at the Senior Bowl, has all the intangibles you want, and could be a great find from a rising but still overlooked college program. I am really high on all three of these picks and think Howie found some draft inefficiencies that people are overlooking.
Looking forward, the Eagles will most likely lose Barnett, possibly before the start of this season and most definitely before 2022. The Eagles will also start to face the harsh reality of the value of Cox vs. his cost and age. Hargrave should be here for two years given his restructure but will be 30 then. Behind Cox and Hargrave, there was not depth before this draft and getting this talent via free agency or trades is expensive.
Given the above and the amount of cap being used for the DL, the Eagles need to continue to invest there in the 2022 draft, specifically for starting DTs and at least depth at EDGE. With which picks will depend primarily on if they need to use their top picks to acquire or get into a better draft position to get a QB and after they hopefully address CB.
