My no-trade, needs-based, data-backed Eagles 2021 draft strategy
I previously wrote a post on why the Eagles should take a cornerback in the first round over a wide receiver based on (1) the Eagles dire need for CBs and (2) the historical value of each position and ease of finding starters by round. This analysis used ProFootball Reference’s Approximate Value (AV) metric to measure player value. For a description of AV, here is a deeper description of the metric and how I used it.
Now, as I am prepare for my annual draft disappointment, I want to build out what my full draft strategy would be for the Eagles based on their needs, their possible draft board, and what historical draft data tells us about where value is found.
What Does Historical Draft Data Tell Us
First, some data on the realities of the draft which will drive my prioritization (all data below uses draft data from 2005–2020).
You have to get your priority positions in the first 3 rounds
- Almost 60% of the elite players are drafted in the 1st round, another 20% in the 2nd, 12% in round 3, and almost none rounds 4–7
- Sometime in the 3rd round, the draft crosses over where 50% of picks are poor players or busts
- Rounds 5–7 have under a 25% chance of drafting a league average
This year, we should expect the draft to be even more top-heavy with less expected success in the later rounds given how many fewer players declared for the draft due to the NCAA allowing an extra year of eligibility due to Covid.
QBs, CBs, pass rushers (and left tackles) need to be taken VERY early
Positions like quarterback and left tackle are widely accepted as positions you have to find at the top of the draft. But it is still widely declared, especially in Philly (in the face of all data) that positions like CB can be easily found later. Below shows how much each position degrades in AV value by round — Edge, QB, IDL, and CB are the top 4 fastest degrading positions meaning you better get them early.
In the above, right and left tackles are combined into a single tackle category, which does not reflect the importance of left tackles specifically. My friend and a great follow @PHLEagleNews just sent me an article from OverTheCap.com that finds the average draft position for the top 15 paid players at each position (https://overthecap.com/where-the-top-15-paid-players-at-each-position-were-drafted). It shows the top 5 highest drafted positions are consistent with CB, LT, QB, IDL, and Edge.
What makes these positions even more critical is that they are also some of the most heavily drafted positions. Below shows the percentage of picks in each round by position, with CB as the most highly drafted round 1 position, averaging over 5 CBs taken. Edge and Tackle are the next two most frequently drafted round 1 positions, followed by LB, WR, IDL, and QB.
For priority positions, you want to be one of the first 5 to 10 players of that position drafted
Below shows the player class by how many of that position has been drafted already. The first grouping are the 1st through 5th players picked at their position, the second grouping are the 6th through 10th players at their position, etc. Overall, in the top 5 of a position you have a 75% chance of an average or better player, but between 6–10 of a position drafted, the success rate falls below 50%. Between 11–15, you have a one-third chance of drafting at least an average player.
This does differ by position some but generally holds true — below shows the value curves for our priority positions (CB, WR, EDGE, and IOL):
Now, the Draft…
Below I will lay out my strategy for each pick based on the historical data, the Eagles draft needs, and the top players on my board. For some reality, I will use The Draft Network’s Mock Draft Machine to actually make my picks.
Eagles Draft Needs
The Eagles really don’t have a position that isn’t some sort of need, but I rank the positional needs as follows:
Top Tier Priorities — CB, WR, Edge, IOL, IDL
Middle Tier — LB, TE, RB
Lowest Tier — QB, OT, S, LB
Round 1, Pick 12: CB Jaycee Horn
My top targets: CB Jaycee Horn, CB Patrick Surtain, WR Devonta Smith, WR Jaylen Waddle, OT Rashawn Slater
Top available on simulator: The top WRs were gone in this simulation, leaving the best available players on The Draft Network’s simulator as QB Mac Jones, Horn, LB Parsons, and OT Darrisaw.
Given the above historical data, the Eagles have to prioritize a CB very early and it is what I doing here. Many will want a WR here, which is also a need, but a further dive into historical draft data shows that good WRs can be found later in the draft than good CBs. By pick 40 elite CBs are almost nonexistent and by pick 60 teams have an over 50% chance of a CB being worse than league average (Avonte Maddox is slightly above league average for context).
The pick: Easy one, you take Horn here.
Alternate pick: I worry that Horn will not actually be available in the actual draft and if not, it should mean that one of the WRs (Smith, Waddle) or Slater would be available. If this was the case, I would take Smith, then Waddle, then Slater. And would be happy with any of them, but this forces the Eagles hand at 37 with CB.
Round 2, Pick 37: EDGE Carlos Basham
My top targets (in rough priority order): WR Terrace Marshall, WR Kadarius Toney, CB Eric Stokes, CB Asante Samuel, EDGE Carlos Basham, LB Nick Bolton, C Creed Humphrey, C Landon Dickerson
Top available on simulator: Available for me are RBs Travis Etienne and Javonte Williams, C Landon Dickerson, OT Samuel Cosmi, WRs Amari Rodgers and Dyami Brown, C Creed Humphrey, EDGEs Jayson Oweh, Payton Turner, and Basham, and LBs Browning and Bolton.
The pick: EDGE Carlos Basham. He is the 5th EDGE taken here, getting another priority position in the top 5 of that position taken and upping the odds of getting an above average starter. I would have preferred to have taken Marshall if he fell and in an actual draft, would have tried to trade up to get him. Looking back at the 1st pick, 5 CBs are now off the board (Surtain, Horn, Farley, Newsome, and Stokes) leaving Asante, Aaron Robinson, and Kelvin Joseph as the next best available, showing how CBs get depleted quickly.
Alternate pick: The board fell near the worst case scenario for most Philly fans as the target WRs were taken before both 12 and 37. I would look at the three options below (CB, LB, C) but would take Asante Samuel Jr. here.
- Double-up on CB to lock down that position for several years to come and take Asante. Many may think this excessive but teams will play 3 CBs 70–80% of snaps today. But what about Avonte? I personally view him (who allowed a 108 passer rating last year) as at best a nickel and probably a rotational piece.
- Take LB Bolton who may not be the biggest need for the Eagles, but is decent value here.
- Take our next center with Landon available here. Given his injury history and IOL holding value relatively better through the first 3 rounds, I would pass here as it feels like a bit of a reach, as much as I love his game.
Round 3, Pick 70: C Quinn Meinerz
My top targets: C Quinn Meinerz, C Josh Myers, IDL Milton Williams, IDL Alim McNeill, IDL Marlon Tuipulotu, IDL Togiai, IDL Tufele, WR Amon-Ra St Brown, WR Tylan Wallace, CB Tyson Campbell, LB Jabril Cox, LB Baron Browning
Top available on simulator: Available for me are several safeties including Javon Holland (?), Jamar Johnson, and Richie Grant (?), both Meinerz and Josh Myers at C, several TEs including Freiermuth (?), Brevin Jordan, and Tommy Tremble, IDL Tommy Togiai, WRs Tylan Wallace and Amon-Ra St Brown, LB Chazz Surratt, CB Tyson Campbell, and Edges Janarius Robinson and Quincy Roche.
The pick: Quinn Meinerz. Given only two centers have been drafted so far (Creed and Landon) and 7–8 teams could use a center, I will take the value here and grab Meinerz. You often here in Philly “you can get centers late in the draft like Kelce” or “Stoutland is so good, you can draft a center in the late rounds”. Our familiarity and love for Kelce is great but is fortune, not a plan.
Below shows all centers drafted since 2005 that have averaged 7 AV or more per season, giving them an “Above Average” starter classification. Only 3 of the 15 were drafted after the 3rd round (Kelce, Corey Linsley, and Shaq Mason who actually plays guard now). Six of the 15 were drafted in the 1st and another five were drafted in the 2nd.
Alternate pick: If Meinerz was not available, I would have looked at Myers, Tuipulotu, Richie Grant, Amon-Ra St Brown, or Tylan Wallace but taken Myers. Richie Grant would have been hard to pass up but I just prioritized center over safety. Milton Williams is a lineman I would have loved here but he went 68th.
Round 3, Pick 84: WR Amon-Ra St Brown
My top targets (rough priority order): Largely the same list as pick 70 with but adding EDGE Quincy Roche, EDGE Patrick Jones, G Deonte Brown, and OT D’Ante Smith.
Top available on simulator: WRs Amon-Ra St Brown and Tylan Wallace, TE Brevin Jordan, LB Jabril Cox, IDLs Tufele and Alim McNeill, RB Kenneth Gainwell, EDGE Roche, QB Kellen Mond, S Divine Deablo, CB Paulson Adebo.
The pick: I don’t feel great about this pick but the Eagles have to walk away with a WR. Amon-Ra would be the 13th WR taken in this draft, projects to fit well in quick-timing so he is a good fit for the Eagles likely offense, but is not a sure thing by any means. If he fits history and averages around 6 AV per season, he would have comparables of Tyler Lockett, Terrance Williams, Chris Godwin, and Eric Decker, all drafted in the same location with average expected AV for that draft position. Lockett is a very similar athletic profile to Amon-Ra and if he hit that comparison, would be the Eagles WR1 or WR2.
Alternate pick: It’s hard not to go WR (if not St Brown, then Tylan Wallace) here since the first two rounds worked against us with WRs. The non-WR I would take here would be Alim McNeill as only 4 IDLs have been selected so far in this mock. Even in a perceived poor year for IDL, you would be getting your 5th ranked player here vs. the average year when close to 10 IDLs would have been picked by this point in the draft. Even considering this is a down year, a top 5 IDL still is a likely solid starter at near 70% chance of being league average.
Rounds 4–7
At this point, I hope I have a future CB1, an immediate rotational EDGE and future starter, my future C, and I took another swing at a WR in a deep class. From this point on, the data is stacked against us on consistently hitting on true starters and the focus will be on the following:
- Positions that historically have had better hit rates in later rounds (OT, IDL, CB)
- Players with that may have opted out or have limited 2020 tape that have the traits needed
Round 4, Pick 123: IDL Alim McNeill
Only 3 years of experience as a DT, high athletic profile, but underdeveloped and will need time on technique.
Round 5, Pick 150: CB, Ambry Thomas
Only started 1 year in 2019 then opted out, so limited tape, but allowed only a 56% passer rating at Michigan in 2019.
Round 6, Pick 189: TE Tre McKitty
Underutilized with only 10 targets in 7 games at UGA before opting out led to questions on his pass-catching abilities.
Round 6, Pick 224: WR Cornell Powell
Limited college resume with only the 2020 season where he was a significant part of the offense and already 23 years old, but YAC threat and
Round 6, Pick 225: OT Drew Himmelman
Similarities to Mailata, Himmelman is massive at 6'9" and relatively inexperienced. He will need time on the practice squad but is worth an investment late.
Round 7, Pick 234: EDGE Tarron Jackson
Productive edge defender at Coastal Carolina
Round 7, Pick 240: P Pressley Harvin
This one is a write-in as The Draft Network’s simulator does not have special teams players. My concern is Harvin may need to be taken earlier as he is a very draftable punter.
One piece of data on the last pick. I have seen a lot more mocks recently picking a punter for the Eagles as they have a need. But wanted to share some data as there is still a view that drafting a punter or kicker is a wasted pick vs. other positions. I posted about this earlier here but below shows the actual player value vs. the expected value from that draft position by position. In round 7, only two positions have positive median value vs. expected value at that position — kicker and punter. The reasoning makes sense — at the end of the draft, you are already into the 15–20th player at a position but getting the top 1 or 2 special teams players.
Mock Summary
R1–12: CB Jaycee Horn
R2–37: EDGE Carlos Basham
R3–70: C Quinn Meinerz
R3–84: WR Amon-Ra St Brown
R4–123: IDL Alim McNeill
R5–150: CB Ambry Thomas
R6–189: TE Tre McKitty
R6–224: WR Cornell Powell
R6–225: OT Drew Himmelman
R7–234: EDGE Tarron Jackson
R7–240: P Pressley Harvin
I ran a second mock draft on The Draft Network’s simulator since the above broke so wrong for Eagles fans hopes for a WR, which I will just summarize here to show another option using the same data to go after needs:
R1–12: WR Jaylen Waddle
R2–37: CB Asante Samuel
R3–70: IDL Marlon Tuipulotu
R3–84: EDGE Quincy Roche
R4–123: C Kendrick Green
R5–150: CB Ambry Thomas
R6–189: RB Chris Evans
R6–224: CB Shemar Jean-Charles
R6–225: OT Drew Himmelman
R7–234: EDGE Tarron Jackson
R7–240: P Pressley Harvin
